Confidential lab

Sims

Tape started 2026-08-13. We started the public hit log on Thursday, Aug 13. The 10k model is a hypothesis generator. We grade overs, unders, sides, and props in the open so we can see if it deserves a vote on Officials. No money on this tape. Daily journal: grade yesterday before the new slate posts. Never leave the tape at 0–0 when games have already finished.

Overs

4-2

all tape

Unders

24-9

all tape

Player props

2-2

0 open

Sides

37-11

0 live

Yesterday

11-2

0-0 O · 2-0 U

How this engine thinks

Book total + no-vig ML. No posted number = no card.
MLB team runs: NegBin r=4 (each side, then sum). WNBA: normal scores.
Ks: pitcher K% × log5(opp K%) × batters faced — never K/9 × IP.
10,000 runs. Band is 10th–90th. Park stays on runs, off Ks.
No book line = note. Actionable count/day is the lab’s clock.

Today’s sim pick

MLB · 12:35 PM

PIT ML

DET @ PIT

Grade B · 1.3 pts vs the number

Full card · tap

MLB · 1:10 PM

SD ML

SD @ NYM

Grade B · 1.1 pts vs the number

Full card · tap

MLB · 1:40 PM

ATL ML

ATL @ MIN

Grade C · 0.4 pts vs the number

Full card · tap

MLB · 2:20 PM

CHC ML

CWS @ CHC

Grade B · 1.2 pts vs the number

Full card · tap

Tonight’s prop board · ranked by edge

TOR

Max Scherzer

UNDER 4.5 Ks · proj 3.8

62%

note · B

DET

CLE/DET

UNDER 4.5 F5 total · proj 3.9

62%

note · B

DET

Keider Montero

UNDER 4.5 Ks · proj 3.9

60%

note · C

WSH

CHC/WSH

UNDER 0.5 NRFI · proj 0.41

59%

note · C

WAS

Ariel Atkins

UNDER 16.5 Points · proj 14.8

59%

note · C

NYY

Max Fried

OVER 5.5 Ks · proj 6.3

58%

note · B

CLE

Parker Messick

OVER 4.5 Ks · proj 5.2

57%

note · B

LVA

A'ja Wilson

OVER 22.5 Points · proj 24.1

57%

note · B

BOS

Payton Tolle

OVER 5.5 Ks · proj 6.1

56%

note · B

LVA

A'ja Wilson

OVER 9.5 Rebs · proj 10.4

56%

note · C

TOR

BOS/TOR

OVER 4.5 F5 total · proj 4.9

55%

note · C

CHC

Kevin Gausman

OVER 5.5 Ks · proj 6

55%

note · C

Still to play

MLB · PNC Park · park 0.96

12:35 PM

DET

—

42%

PIT

—

58%

DET 42%PIT 58%

Over 8 46%Under 54.0%

Proj

—–—

Band

—–—

+1.5

DET —%

Money leans PIT ML · 58.0% of 10k

1.3 pts vs the number

Skenes at home. Short outing is the kill.

MLB · Citi Field · park 0.97

1:10 PM

—

54%

NYM

—

46%

SD 54%NYM 46%

Over 8.5 48%Under 52.0%

Proj

—–—

Band

—–—

+1.5

SD —%

Money leans SD ML · 54.0% of 10k

1.1 pts vs the number

King is the better arm. Mets lean on a fill-in.

MLB · Target Field · park 1.01

1:40 PM

ATL

—

52%

MIN

—

48%

ATL 52%MIN 48%

Over 8.5 49%Under 51.0%

Proj

—–—

Band

—–—

+1.5

ATL —%

Money leans ATL ML · 52.0% of 10k

0.4 pts vs the number

Day game after a loss. Shop the juice.

MLB · Wrigley Field · park 1.04

2:20 PM

CWS

—

38%

CHC

—

62%

CWS 38%CHC 62%

Over 8.5 51%Under 49.0%

Proj

—–—

Band

—–—

+1.5

CWS —%

Money leans CHC ML · 62.0% of 10k

1.2 pts vs the number

Cubs at home. Wind can wreck the total.

MLB · Camden Yards · park 1.06

6:35 PM

NYY

—

55%

BAL

—

45%

NYY 55%BAL 45%

Over 8.5 50%Under 50.0%

Proj

—–—

Band

—–—

+1.5

NYY —%

Money leans NYY ML · 55.0% of 10k

0.8 pts vs the number

Yankees just took the opener 3–1.

MLB · Fenway Park · park 1.05

4:10 PM

ARI

—

46%

BOS

—

54%

ARI 46%BOS 54%

Over 8.5 44%Under 56.0%

Proj

—–—

Band

—–—

+1.5

ARI —%

Money leans UNDER 8.5 · 56.0%

1.4 pts vs the number

Pfaadt and Tolle are both rolling. First two games were 20 runs. This one should not be.

MLB · Yankee Stadium · park 1.08

1:35 PM

SEA

64-56 · Logan Gilbert 3.41

3.7

42%

NYY

66-54 · Max Fried 3.28

4.6

58%

SEA 42%NYY 58%

Over 8.5 47%Under 53.0%

Proj

3.7–4.6

Band

6–12

+1.5

SEA 61%

Money leans NYY ML · 58.0% of 10k

1.4 pts vs the number

Props · book line when we have it

NYY

Max Fried

OVER 5.5 Ks · proj 6.3

58%

note · B

SEA

Logan Gilbert

OVER 6.5 Ks · proj 6.8

53%

note · C

NYY

SEA/NYY

OVER 0.5 NRFI · proj 0.48

46%

note · C

Fried vs a high-K Mariners lineup. Short outing is the kill.

MLB · Rogers Centre · park 1.04

3:07 PM

BOS

67-53 · Payton Tolle 3.20

5.1

61%

TOR

69-51 · Max Scherzer 7.25

3.6

39%

BOS 61%TOR 39%

Over 8.5 52%Under 48.0%

Proj

5.1–3.6

Band

6–13

+1.5

BOS 72%

Money leans BOS ML · 61.0% of 10k

2.2 pts vs the number

Props · book line when we have it

BOS

Payton Tolle

OVER 5.5 Ks · proj 6.1

56%

note · B

TOR

Max Scherzer

UNDER 4.5 Ks · proj 3.8

62%

note · B

TOR

BOS/TOR

OVER 4.5 F5 total · proj 4.9

55%

note · C

Tolle vs a tired Toronto club. Scherzer’s ERA is the story.

MLB · Nationals Park · park 1.00

4:05 PM

CHC

69-51 · Kevin Gausman 3.55

4.8

64%

WSH

48-72 · MacKenzie Gore 4.10

3.3

36%

CHC 64%WSH 36%

Over 8 49%Under 51.0%

Proj

4.8–3.3

Band

5–12

+1.5

CHC 74%

Money leans CHC ML · 64.0% of 10k

1.8 pts vs the number

Props · book line when we have it

CHC

Kevin Gausman

OVER 5.5 Ks · proj 6

55%

note · C

WSH

MacKenzie Gore

OVER 5.5 Ks · proj 5.9

54%

note · C

WSH

CHC/WSH

UNDER 0.5 NRFI · proj 0.41

59%

note · C

Cubs road favorite. Gore can miss bats; Washington’s bats have not.

MLB · Comerica Park · park 0.96

6:40 PM

CLE

61-58 · Parker Messick 2.57

3.4

44%

DET

72-49 · Keider Montero 4.48

4.1

56%

CLE 44%DET 56%

Over 8 43%Under 57.0%

Proj

3.4–4.1

Band

5–11

+1.5

CLE 63%

Money leans UNDER 8 · 57.0%

1.6 pts vs the number

Props · book line when we have it

CLE

Parker Messick

OVER 4.5 Ks · proj 5.2

57%

note · B

DET

Keider Montero

UNDER 4.5 Ks · proj 3.9

60%

note · C

DET

CLE/DET

UNDER 4.5 F5 total · proj 3.9

62%

note · B

Comerica + two arms that miss barrels. The Vet is on the under.

WNBA · Michelob Ultra Arena

10:00 PM

WAS

16-20

28%

LVA

22-14

72%

WAS 28%LVA 72%

Over 164.5 48%Under 52.0%

Proj

76–88

Band

148–182

+1.5

WAS 41%

Money leans LVA ML · 72.0% of 10k

2 pts vs the number

Props · book line when we have it

LVA

A'ja Wilson

OVER 22.5 Points · proj 24.1

57%

note · B

LVA

A'ja Wilson

OVER 9.5 Rebs · proj 10.4

56%

note · C

WAS

Ariel Atkins

UNDER 16.5 Points · proj 14.8

59%

note · C

Aces at home. Highest survival ML on the board inside −250.

MLB · loanDepot park · park 0.95

1:10 PM

PIT

3.6

45%

MIA

4.2

55%

PIT 45%MIA 55%

Over 8.5 48%Under 52.0%

Proj

3.6–4.2

Band

—–—

+1.5

PIT —%

Money leans MIA ML · 55.0% of 10k

Close to the market — tape, not a play

Marlins home. Afternoon lid-lifter.

MLB · Rate Field · park 1.06

2:10 PM

CIN

4.8

55%

CHW

4.1

45%

CIN 55%CHW 45%

Over 9 52%Under 48.0%

Proj

4.8–4.1

Band

—–—

+1.5

CIN —%

Money leans CIN ML · 55.0% of 10k

Close to the market — tape, not a play

Rate Field plays up. Runs are in play.

MLB · Target Field · park 0.98

7:30 PM

PHI

4.5

60%

MIN

3.4

40%

PHI 60%MIN 40%

Over 8 47%Under 53.0%

Proj

4.5–3.4

Band

—–—

+1.5

PHI —%

Money leans PHI ML · 60.0% of 10k

Close to the market — tape, not a play

Phillies road favorite. Twins have been quiet at home.

MLB · Angel Stadium · park 0.97

10:07 PM

TEX

4.6

59%

LAA

3.5

41%

TEX 59%LAA 41%

Over 8.5 49%Under 51.0%

Proj

4.6–3.5

Band

—–—

+1.5

TEX —%

Money leans TEX ML · 59.0% of 10k

Close to the market — tape, not a play

deGrom vs a thin Angels club if he’s listed.

MLB · Dodger Stadium · park 0.94

10:10 PM

MIL

3.5

42%

LAD

4.4

58%

MIL 42%LAD 58%

Over 8 46%Under 54.0%

Proj

3.5–4.4

Band

—–—

+1.5

MIL —%

Money leans LAD ML · 58.0% of 10k

Close to the market — tape, not a play

Dodger Stadium night. Runs die if the starter goes deep.

Hit log

Game	Lean	Gr	Result
ARI @ BOS	BOS ML	B	loss
CHW @ CHC	CHC ML	B	loss
MIN @ GS	MIN ML	B	win
WSH @ TEX	WSH ML	C	win
ATH @ KC	KC ML	B	win
TOR @ TB	TB ML	B	win
SF @ CLE	UNDER 8.0	B	win
NYY @ BAL	NYY ML	B	win
MIA @ PHI	PHI ML	B	win
CHW @ CHC	UNDER 8.5	B	win
CHW @ CHC	CHW ML	C	win
ATL @ MIN	MIN ML	B	win
SD @ NYM	NYM ML	B	win
SD @ NYM	UNDER 8.0	B	win
CWS @ CHC	CHC ML	B	win
ATH @ KC	KC ML	B	win
LAD @ COL	LAD ML	B	win
WSH @ TEX	TEX ML	B	win
ATL @ MIN	ATL ML	C	loss
NYY @ BAL	NYY ML	B	win
IND @ TOR	IND ML	A	win
MIA @ PHI	PHI ML	B	win
ARI @ BOS	OVER 8.5	C	win
ARI @ BOS	BOS ML	B	win

Prop hit log

Player	Lean	Proj	Result
Gerrit Cole	OVER 5.5 Ks	5.8	loss · 5
Kevin Gausman	OVER 4.5 Ks	5.4	win · 7
Logan Gilbert	OVER 6.5 Ks	6.8	win · 7
Max Fried	OVER 5.5 Ks	6.3	loss · 4

MLB park book

COL 1.28

Coors Field

CIN 1.12

Great American

ATH 1.08

Sutter Health Park

NYY 1.08

Yankee Stadium

BOS 1.07

Fenway Park

PHI 1.06

Citizens Bank

CHW 1.05

Rate Field

ATL 1.04

Truist Park

TB 1.04

Steinbrenner Field

TOR 1.04

Rogers Centre

BAL 1.03

Camden Yards

MIL 1.03

American Family

ARI 1.02

Chase Field

CHC 1.01

Wrigley Field

TEX 1.01

Globe Life Field

WSH 1.00

Nationals Park

MIN 0.99

Target Field

CLE 0.98

Progressive Field

LAA 0.98

Angel Stadium

HOU 0.97

Daikin Park

STL 0.97

Busch Stadium

KC 0.96

Kauffman Stadium

NYM 0.96

Citi Field

DET 0.95

Comerica Park

LAD 0.94

Dodger Stadium

PIT 0.94

PNC Park

SEA 0.92

T-Mobile Park

MIA 0.91

loanDepot park

SD 0.90

Petco Park

SF 0.88

Oracle Park

Back to the main board. Confirm every number on your book.