Overseas

Al-Fayha hosts Al-Hilal at 2:00 PM ET. Under 3.5 — four goals lose, three or fewer cash, no push. The integer 3.0 is the trap; this is the half-line. A 6,843-seat ground, last year’s corresponding fixture 1–0. Al-Hilal can blow teams out at home. This is the away script. Pinnacle −179. Funded US shop −190. Kill worse than −200. Record only. Does not touch the Cipher bank.

Second leg in Quito after a 1–1 first leg. Mirassol is flying in from Brazil to play at altitude, and these knockout return nights in Quito stay tight more often than they open up. Pinnacle’s main total is 2.25, Under −107 — two goals or fewer cashes, three and you lose. The model has Under 2.5 at 52.9% and BTTS No at 52.6%, so the under filter holds. I am not taking LDU moneyline. That number is −184, it fails the −180 cap, and the model only has LDU around 54% anyway. BetRivers is the US shop: they posted Under 2.5 −141, which is too short for a 53% under — pass that price. Kill if Pinnacle Under 2.25 goes worse than −120, or if the line drops to 1.75. Record only. Does not touch the Cipher bank.